Arizona Migration Patterns
This project involves evaluating migration patterns in order to help policymakers understand migration patterns in and out of the state using Excel, Alteryx, and Tableau.
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Description
The IRS publishes tax statistics with U.S. population migration data. Policymakers know that revenue needs and appropriate service provisions depend on the current and future resident population/ demographics. Migration data can be helpful for policymakers to understand the potential future tax revenue stream and make informed spending decisions.
I chose to look at Arizona’s migration data for the years 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019. These data sets are separated by the direction of migration, inflow or outflow, and by state level or county level. Each contains seven main variables. The first two pertain to the State of Destination/ Origin, and the other five are State Abbreviations, State Name of Origin, Number of Returns, Number of Exemptions, and Adjusted Gross Income (AGI).
Analytical Question
How do migration patterns affect tax revenue and the types of services that the government should provide?
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When taxpayers leave Arizona, what states do they move to?
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When taxpayers move into Arizona, what states are they moving from?
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How much potential tax revenue (and disposable income) is being gained or lost based on these migration patterns?
Alteryx
Extract, Transform, Prepare
Clean the data: Transformed raw data by cleaning the data, removing unwanted rows, and naming header rows.
Containers, Copying, & Reconfiguring Workflows: Replicated and reconfigured the workflow.
Connecting data files: Combined the clean data sets for the Inflow and Outflow. Combined all 5 years of data into one data set.
Creating data: Computed a net migration for each year. Computed a 5-year average net migration for # of returns, # of exemptions, and AGI.
Tableau
Visualize
Net # Returns
The # of returns filed approximates the number of households that migrated. The net # of returns represents the number of households moving into AZ.
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The heat maps represent each state's average net value over all 4 years.
Net # Exemptions
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The # of personal exemptions claimed approximates the number of individuals. The net # of exemptions represents the net amount of individuals moving into AZ.
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The people moving to Arizona are coming significantly from California, Illinois, Washington, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Pattern: There was a significant increase in the number of people who moved to AZ from CA, IL, WA, and CO from 2016 to 2017.
The states that Arizona loses most residents to are Tennessee, Idaho, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Utah. More people are moving to, rather than from, these states.
Outliers: More people moving into AZ from ID in 2018. A significant amount of people moving from AZ to UT in 2016
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Net AGI
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The AGI represents the adjusted gross income of the primary taxpayer. The net AGI represents the income accrued by individuals moving into AZ.
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Arizona gains the most revenue when individuals move from California, Illinois, Washington, Minnesota, and New York
Pattern: Consistent increase from 2016 to 2017.
Arizona loses the greatest amount of revenue from residents that move to Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Idaho.
Outlier: Florida's significant increase in 2017.
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Findings
Some states are different within the top 5 highest Net Exemptions and top 5 highest AGI. While New Mexico and Colorado have a significant amount of migrants to AZ, Minnesota and New York’s migrants typically have higher incomes.
AZ loses the greatest amount of revenue from those moving to Florida despite the fact that FL is not one of the top 5 states that people migrate to.
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Utah is one of the top 5 states that residents move to, yet is not one of the top 5 states that AZ loses income to.
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The trend between each year for the lowest net # exemptions and net AGI is the same only for Tennessee.
Factors that may affect the move:
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A policymaker may want to know more information about the states that people are moving to/from to help understand these patterns and outliers. Other pertinent information may include demographics of the individuals along with state information such as income tax rate, political climate, recent elections, government services provided, crime rates, weather, etc.
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This migration analysis along with a further exploration of other variables can aid Arizona policymakers in balancing their revenue spend with appropriate service provisions.